Monday, April 26, 2021

Alkem Laboratories Ltd(539523)- No 1 in anti­infectives.

Alkem Laboratories Ltd(539523 closes   at 2796.35 with  a  Gain  of   -+0.70%   on    26-April-2021  with formation of  a  Small  Green  Candle    on Daily  Price Chart.

About the Company : Alkem Laboratories Limited is a pharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical and neutraceutical products. The Company operates through two segments: pharmaceutical and investing. The Company produces generics, generic drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and neutraceuticals, which it markets in India and approximately 50 countries internationally, primarily the United States. The Company offers various products, such as CLAVAM 375, CLAVAM BID DRY SYRUP, CLAVAM INJ 300MG, FREEAIR NASAL SPRAY, PAN 40MG INJECTION (VIAL), PAN/40MG TABLETS, PROWEL DRY SYRUP (30ML), TAXCLAV 100 DT TABLETS, SATROGYL O DRY SYRUP, XONE/500MG VAIL, MEROSURE KIT 500, MEROSURE 500 MG and ZADONASE, among others. The Company has approximately 16 manufacturing facilities, of which 14 manufacturing facilities are at geographically diversified locations in India and two in the United States.

Sector Update : Positive

Strength :  1. It is ranked No 1 in anti­infectives. In the chronic segment, too, it has managed to raise its market share despite a smaller presence.

Financials : Alkem Laboratories Ltd  has posted Net Sales / Revenue   of 8344.40 Cr & Net Profit of 1127.10 Cr in FY2020 and expected to post Net Sales / Revenue   of 8967.60 Cr & Net Profit  of 1635.40 Cr in FY2021 and Net Sales / Revenue   of 10067.20 Cr & Net Profit of 1602.20 Cr in FY2022  and Net Sales / Revenue   of 11113.60 Cr & Net Profit of 1821.70 Cr in FY2023.

Valuations  : The Company is now Trading at X 1.90  of its  valuations ( last 4Quaters earnings considered here) with ~90 % premium   and at X1.23 of its FY 2021, which is now almost  ~23%  premium   to its value and  X 1.25 of its FY 2022 earning with a premium  of ~25% and X1.10 of its FY2023 earning with ~10%  premium to its valuations.

Margin of Safety (1Yr Bond Yield: Value>1 ) is now  0.80  which  makes is attractive after a ~20% fall in market price. The  Equity Value Per Share ( Enterprise Value Method ) is  2687.10

Whats  best in It   : Alkem Laboratories Ltd  is now available at EPS of 94.30(FY2020), which will improve to 151 by FY2023, Free Cash Flow will rise to 1359.50 Cr in FY2023 from 237.40 Cr during the same period.Book Value per Share will  be 822 in FY2023, which is ₹515 in FY2020.

If We factor its earnings/valuations, its Price arrives at 4795 with consideration FY2023 earnings.

Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

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The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |

 

 


Sunday, April 25, 2021

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd (500038) : Improvement in the business risk profile


Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd (500038) closes   at 266.55  with  a  Fall  of   -0.50%   on    23-April-2021  with formation of  a  Small Red  Candle    on Daily  Price Chart.

About the Company : BCML is one of the largest sugar producers in India. The operations of the company are forward integrated, manufacturing ethanol, using molasses' a by-product of sugar, and power, using cogeneration from bagasse,  generated out of sugar manufacturing. Its facilities consist of ten sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh with a combined capacity of 76,500 tonnes per day (TPD) of sugarcane, 520 kilo litres per day (KLPD) of distillery and 165.2 megawatt [MW] of saleable cogeneration capacity. The Saraogi family, the promoters, held 41.21% of the company's equity capital as on December 31, 2020.

Sector Update : Positive

Strength :  1. Established market position and diversified revenue profile 2. Superior and improving operating efficiencies 3. Comfortable financial risk profile

Weaknesses : 1. Susceptibility of business performance to downturn in the sugar business 2. Exposure to regulatory changes in the sugar industry

Financials : Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd  has posted Net Sales / Revenue   of 4741.30 Cr & Net Profit of 509.30 Cr in FY2020 and expected to post Net Sales / Revenue   of 4995.00 Cr & Net Profit  of 486.90 Cr in FY2021 and Net Sales / Revenue   of 5104.20 Cr & Net Profit of 610.50 Cr in FY2022  and Net Sales / Revenue   of 5450.10 Cr & Net Profit of 712.70 Cr in FY2023.

Valuations  : The Company is now Trading at X 0.70 of its  valuations ( last 4Quaters earnings considered here) with ~30% Discount  and at X0.69 of its FY 2021, which is now almost  ~31%  Discount  to its value and  X 0.55  of its FY 2022 earning with a Discount  of ~45% and X0.47 of its FY2023 earning with ~53 %  Discount to its valuations.

Margin of Safety (1Yr Bond Yield: Value>1 ) is now 2.1 which  makes is attractive as available at almost ~50% Deep Discount.  The  Equity Value Per Share ( Enterprise Value Method ) is  265.80

Whats  best in It   : Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd  is now available at EPS of 14.60(FY2020), which will improve to 35.50 in FY2023, Free Cash Flow will rise to 675.50 Cr in from 595.20Cr during the same period.Book Value per Share will  be 166 in FY2023, which is 108 in FY2020.

If We factor its earnings/valuations, its Price arrives at 562 with consideration FY2023 earnings.

Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

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The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |

 


Monday, March 29, 2021

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (532424) : Global operations will add value

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (532424) closes   at 710.15   with  a  Gain of   +4.40%   on    26-March-2021  with formation of  a  Green Candle    on Daily  Price Chart.

About the Company : Godrej Consumer Products is engaged in a fast moving consumer goods Company, manufacturing and marketing Household and Personal Care products.

Sector Update : Positive

Strength :  1. The company is eyeing a double digit revenue growth and 17%-18% margins in key markets such as Africa 2. Double-digit growth on the back of strong demand in rural markets and recovery in urban areas.3. The soaps category will see 15 per cent growth

Weaknesses : 1. Increase in the cost of raw material such as palm oil and packaging material.

Financials : Godrej Consumer Products Ltd has posted Net Sales / Revenue   of 9910.80Cr & Net Profit of 2143.00 Cr in FY2020 and expected to post Net Sales / Revenue   of 10911.30 Cr & Net Profit  of 2448.10 Cr in FY2021 and Net Sales / Revenue   of 11922.50 Cr & Net Profit of 2690.50 Cr in FY2022  and Net Sales / Revenue   of 13097.70 Cr & Net Profit of 3005.90 Cr in FY2023.

Valuations  : The Company is now Trading at X 4.10 of its  valuations ( last 4Quaters earnings considered here) with ~310% Premium  and at X1.82 of its FY 2021, which is now almost  ~82%  Premium to its value and  X 1.62 of its FY 2022 earning with a premium  of ~62% and X1.48of its FY2023 earning with ~48%  premium to its valuations.

Margin of Safety (1Yr Bond Yield: Value>1 ) is now 0.4, which  makes is attractive after ~60% decline in CMP. The  Equity Value Per Share ( Enterprise Value Method ) is  702.70

Whats  best in It   : Godrej Consumer Products Ltd is now available at EPS of 14.60(FY2020), which will improve to 20.9 in FY2023, Debt is 1148.50 Cr inFY2020 will Decline to 320.70 by Fy2023 and Free Cash Flow will rise to 2171.10 Cr in from 1436.10 Cr during the same period.The cos is planning to go for capex, will rise from 152.00Cr in FY2020 to 285.0 Cr in FY2023; Return on Assets from 10.90% to 12.60% and Book Value per share from 77.30 to 101.00 by FY2023.

If We factor its earnings/valuations, its Price arrives at 1964.00 with consideration FY2023 earnings.

Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

Join Us at   Telegram #   https://t.me/TheNiftyNext

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The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |

 

 


Sunday, March 28, 2021

Trident Ltd : Outlook Turned Positive on Financial Strength and Business Growth

Trident Ltd  closes   at ₹13.70   with  a  Fall  of   -0.60%   on    26-March-2021  with formation of  a  Red  Candle    on Daily  Price Chart.

About the Company : Trident Limited, the flagship company of the Trident Group, is a leading manufacturer of yarn, Bath Linen, Bed Linen and wheat straw-based paper, Chemicals and Captive Power. Currently, the company has manufacturing facilities in Barnala (Punjab) and Budhni (Madhya Pradesh).

 Sector Update : Healthy over the medium term

Strength :  1. Diversified revenue with leading market position in the home textiles segment, and established position in WPP(writing and printing (WPP) paper.2. Strong operating efficiency driven by integration of operations 3. Strong financial risk profile

Weaknesses : 1. Exposure to volatility in cotton prices and rupee 2. Working capital-intensive operations 3. Susceptibility to slowdown in the end-user market and to competition in the home textiles segment

Financials : Trident Ltd  has posted Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹4738.00 Cr & Net Profit of ₹340.00 Cr in FY2020 and expected to post Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹4550.00 Cr & Net Profit  of ₹340.00Cr in FY2021 and Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹5660.00Cr & Net Profit of ₹520.00 Cr in FY2022  and Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹6400.00 Cr & Net Profit of ₹670.00Cr in FY2023.

 Valuations  : The Company is now Trading at X 2.70 of its  valuations ( last 4Quaters earnings considered here) with ~170% Premium  and at X1.26 of its FY 2021, which is now almost  ~26%  Premium to its value and  X 0.82 of its FY 2022 earning with a Discount  of ~18% and X0.64 of its FY2023 earning with ~36%  Discount to its valuations.

Margin of Safety (1Yr Bond Yield: Value>1 ) is now 0.6, which  makes is attractive after ~40% decline in CMP. The  Equity Value Per Share ( Enterprise Value Method ) is  13.00.

Why We are Running behind Trident Ltd : The aggregate revenues are expected to grow by ~15% p.a. as against CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of ~2% during fiscal 2018 to 2020, led by continued traction in home textiles and cotton yarn as well as recovery in the paper segment as well as commissioning of planned capacity addition.

If We factor its earnings/valuations, its Price arrives at 57.90 with consideration FY2023 earnings.

 Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

Join Us at   Telegram #   https://t.me/TheNiftyNext

Data Source NSE Website | Screener.In  | Capital Line Money Control |

The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |

 


Thursday, March 11, 2021

Anupam Rasayan India Limited : IPO & Its Valuations

Anupam Rasayan India Ltd (ARIL) is one of the leading companies engaged in the custom synthesis and manufacturing of specialty chemicals in India. It commenced business as a partnership firm in 1984 as a manufacturer of conventional products and has, over the years, evolved into custom synthesis and manufacturing of life science related specialty chemicals and other specialty chemicals, which involve multi-step synthesis and complex technologies, for a diverse base of Indian and global customers. Its key focus in its custom synthesis and manufacturing operations is developing in-house innovative processes for manufacturing products requiring complex chemistries and achieving cost optimization.

Here are some quick details about this offer:

Issue period: Mar 12 – Mar 16, 2021

IPO Size: Rs. 757.3 – 760.0 cr

Price band: Rs. 553 –555 (discount of Rs.55 for eligible employees)

Bid lot: 27 equity shares and in multiples thereof.

Retail Category: Not less than 35% of the net offer

 Anupam Rasayan India Limited has  Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹501.50 Cr & Net Profit  of ₹50.21Cr in FY2019 and Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹528.88Cr & Net Profit of ₹52.98  Cr in FY2020 & Net Sales / Revenue   of ₹539.22 Cr & Net Profit of ₹48.10 Cr in 9 months of FY2021.

Financial Cost of the Cos. Was  ₹24.35Cr in FY2019 and increased  to ₹49.63Cr in FY21 with increase of Fixed Assets of ₹ 667.66 Cr in FY2019 to ₹972.64Cr in FY2021. PATM % was 9.5 in FY2019, 9.8%in FY2020 & 8.5% in FY2021.

We have valued the Price of each share based on EPV method and its comes at X0.50 of its FY2021 earnings(9Months). Anupam Rasayan India Limited ‘s share is being offered at 50% Discount  to its FY2021 (9Months) Earnings at the highest offer price of ₹555.00

Source : Various Media Reports and RHP of the company.

Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

Join Us at   Telegram #   https://t.me/TheNiftyNext

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The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |

 

Monday, March 8, 2021

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd showed impressive Business growth in Feb-2021 & its Valuations

Private insurers has witnessed  their new business premiums (NBP)  growing by 16 per cent in February to Rs 9,504.64 crore, compared with Rs 8,128.51 crore in the same period a year earlier. NBP is the premium acquired from new policies for a particular year.

Among private players, SBI Life showed impressive growth of more than 60 per cent, HDFC Life’s NBP grew by 20 per cent, and Max Life also had an impressive growth of above 30 per cent. But, ICICI Prudential’s NBP for February de-grew by 19 per cent.

We have factored the SBI Life’s earning for the FY2021,FY2022 & FY2023 and arrived at the Valuations X3.75; X3.02 & X2.42 , while it is now trading at X4.60 of its Valuation (Last 4Q Earnings), which indicates that SBI Life is running out of its Valuations parameter, though it is growing at rate of 53%.

Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

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Data Source NSE Website | Screener.In  | Capital Line Money Control |

The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |


Sunday, March 7, 2021

ITL Industries Ltd : Hurry to catch-up the fair value

ITL Industries Ltd closes   at ₹122.75 with  a  Gain   of  +2.20%   on    05-March-2021  with formation of  a  Green Candle    on Daily  Price Chart.

About the Company : ITL Industries Limited is an India-based company, which is engaged in manufacturing of band saw machines, computerized numerical control (CNC) tube mills, and machine tools and sale/purchase of hydraulic items, among others. The principal business activities of the Company include machine manufacturing, and trading of cutting tools and hydraulics, among others. The Company's segments include machine manufacturing and trading activities. The Company's product portfolio includes High Speed Metal Cutting Band Saw Machine; Automatic Metal Cutting Band Saw Machine; High Speed Vertical Band Saw Machine; High Speed Circular Sawing Machines; Tube Mill; ON-Line Fly Cutt Off; Band Saw Blades; Mitre Cutting Band Saw Machine; Special Purpose Horizontal Bandsaw Metal Sawing Machines; Condensor Vessel/Heat Exchanger End Cutting Machine, and Aluminum Billet Cutting Bandsaw Machine for Extrusion Industry.

Sector Update : The tiles sector will see momentum in the near term with revival of the Industrial & Auto sector.

Strength : Gradual recovery in the domestic in the construction, auto & industrial sector will act as catalyst for this company in Mid-Long term.

Financials : The Company has posted Net Sales of ₹ 79.00Cr and Net Profit of ₹4.00Cr with Net Profit Margin of5% in FY2020 and Net Sales of ₹76.00Cr with Net Profit of ₹3.00Cr with 4% of Net Profit margin.

Valuations  : The Company is now Trading at X 0.90  of its  valuations ( last 4Quaters earnings considered here) with ~10% Discount  and at X0.84 of its FY 2021, which is now almost  ~16%  Discount  to its value and  X 0.80 of its FY 2022 earning with a Discount  of ~20% and X0.75 of its FY2023 earning with ~25%  Discount to its valuations.

Margin of Safety (1Yr Bond Yield: Value>1 ) is now 0.7, which  makes it attractive. The Best Price at X1 EPV to Past Reference(5Yrs) is 123 & Equity Value Per Share ( Enterprise Value Method ) is  117.80 .

Disclaimer : We are / may going to take exposure shortly.

Join Us at   Telegram #   https://t.me/TheNiftyNext

Data Source NSE Website | Screener.In  | Capital Line Money Control |

The author tracks economic, behavioural and corporate tends, hoping to gauge good avenues of return based on Fundamental Valuations of Stocks, a follower of EPV method. You can reach me/us at | Twitter # NiftyNext1 |  e-Mail : Mail@NiftyNext.Com  |  Tel +91 8802230836  |  Telegram # TheNiftyNext   |

 


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